CS2 Karambit Knife Trade Up Guide

More than six months have passed since the CS2 knife trade up update was implemented. The market has changed beyond recognition and stabilized during this time. Now, prices for both Covert items and knives in general remain stable month after month, making it easier to calculate potential trade-ups.

One of the most coveted and expensive knives in CS2 is the Karambit. The good news is that crafting one is possible, but not easy. There is no 100% guaranteed way to trade up Karambit knife CS2. However, in this article for MelBet Pick’em, we’ll share the most profitable and cheapest methods currently available in the game!

How Knife Trade-Up Contracts Work in CS2

The knife trade-up system isn’t fundamentally new. It’s the same system that was added to CS:GO back in 2013. The difference is that the maximum item level for crafting has been expanded to include Covert items. Furthermore, instead of 10 items for Karambit craft CS2 or other knives and gloves, only 5 Covert skins are required.

Otherwise, there are no changes. The predictability of trade-ups remains the same. You can calculate the approximate drop chances in advance, as well as the exact CS2 float of the future skin. Therefore, to best trade up for Karambit knife CS2, it is not enough to take any red item from the collection – it is also important to check the float.

CS2 Karambit Knife: Cases You Can Find It In

To have at least a minimal chance of crafting a Karambit knife in CS2, you need to select specific collections. This is best done using cases. The containers that can drop a Karambit during the case opening contain Covert items that can be used for crafting.

There are a total of 16 such cases as of 2026:

1. CS:GO Weapon Case
2. CS:GO Weapon Case 2
3. CS:GO Weapon Case 3
4. eSports 2013 Case
5. eSports 2013 Winter Case
6. eSports 2014 Summer Case
7. Operation Bravo Case
8. Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
9. Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
10. Revolver Case
11. Winter Offensive Weapon Case
12. Chroma Case
13. Chroma 2 Case
14. Chroma 3 Case
15. Gamma Case
16. Gamma 2 Case

Each contains a different number of Karambits (from 11 to 13). However, there is no case that contains only Karambits.

This is significantly different from butterfly knife craft CS2. A balisong can be obtained with a 100% chance using specific collections. CS2 Karambit knife trade up, in turn, is always about risk. The odds vary, but they are very far from 100%.

Best CS2 Karambit Trade Up Recipes

There are many ways to craft a karambit. Some simply grab any Covert items from the right collections, but most players choose more carefully.

We’ve created two separate sections dedicated to different Karambit knife crafting goals. The first is suitable for those looking to try their luck with minimal expense – it contains the cheapest Covert items from the right collections. The second section is more educational: it explains how to craft the most expensive karambit in the game and how much it might cost. We don’t recommend testing the second option in advance.

Cheapest Karambit CS2 Craft in 2026

The chances of a successful Karambit knife craft from any of the 16 collections listed above are approximately 20%. This means that if you want to try your luck as cheaply as possible, you should choose the cheapest Covert skins included in these collections. These will almost always be Battle-Scarred variants. Higher-quality skins will cost more.

By checking the prices, we selected skins for the Top 5 cheapest Karambit knife trade up. The difference between them isn’t significant, so focus on which options are cheaper at the time of purchase.

The Phoenix Collection

The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

The Vanguard Collection Skins

The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

The Revolver Case Collection

By choosing any five of these skins, your chances of receiving a Karambit are 20%. There are as many as 13 possible Karambit variants that can be obtained:

1. ★ Karambit | Fade – from $1,950.00;
2. ★ Karambit | Vanilla – from $1,155.00;
3. ★ Karambit | Slaughter – from $911.31;
4. ★ Karambit | Blue Steel – from $733.47;
5. ★ Karambit | Case Hardened – from $649.33;
6. ★ Karambit | Crimson Web – from $568.72;
7. ★ Karambit | Stained – from $526.71;
8. ★ Karambit | Night – from $495.64;
9. ★ Karambit | Urban Masked – from $423.38;
10. ★ Karambit | Scorched – from $420.69;
11. ★ Karambit | Boreal Forest – from $406.80;
12. ★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT – from $400.00;
13. ★ Karambit | Safari Mesh – from $391.00.

Also, if you’re unlucky and don’t get a Karambit specifically, these collections contain other beautiful skins as well. Among the most expensive of them, the following can be highlighted:

1. ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade – from $1,058.92;
2. ★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened – from $445.52;
3. ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web – from $440.58;
4. ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel – from $512.31;
5. ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter – from $674.63;
6. ★ Bayonet | Fade – from $384.92;
7. ★ M9 Bayonet | Night – from $337.93;
8. ★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked – from $313.10;
9. ★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest – from $297.85;
10. ★ Bayonet | Case Hardened – from $232.35.

Crafting the Most Expensive Karambit in CS2

Everyone probably already knows that the most expensive skin in CS2 is the Blue Gem Karambit (★ Karambit | Case Hardened with pattern 387). Its price is due to its rarity and the unique pattern that turns the left side of the blade almost entirely blue. Chinese collector Newb Rage owns one, and its value is estimated at $1.5 million.

In theory, this knife can be obtained using a specific Karambit trade up CS2 recipe. To do so, you need to use items from specific collections. There are quite a few of them, and we’ll list them in one table:

Seems simple? However, in practice, we believe it’s unrealistic. Let’s try to calculate the actual odds:

1. The chance of getting any Karambit using these collections, as we determined earlier, is 20%.
2. The chance of getting the Karambit | Case Hardened is 1/13, or 7.69%.
3. To calculate the chance of getting a specific Blue Gem Karambit with pattern 387, you need to know the total number of patterns. According to various sources, there are over 150. No one knows the exact number, but if you take the number 150, it’s approximately 0.67%.

Furthermore, this isn’t the final result. These are just individual probabilities. To get the real odds of a successful CS2 Karambit knife trade up, you need to multiply these values.

Using simple math calculations once again, we can convert a 0.0103% chance into a probability:

Now let’s calculate the average number of attempts (crafting):

That is, on average, it will take about 9,700 crafting attempts to obtain such a knife even once. Moreover, if we take the approximate minimum cost of Covert items from these collections, around $120, then the crafting costs you’ll need:

For this price, you could buy almost four of these knives. Not to mention, such a quantity of Covert items probably doesn’t even exist on the market.

Step-by-Step CS2 Karambit Trade-Up Process

Are you eager to try out the CS2 Karambit trade up in practice as soon as possible? Don’t rush to buy the first knife you see from our guide. There are a few nuances you should keep in mind. We’ve outlined a step-by-step method for how to craft Karambit knife in CS2 with minimal risk:

1. Choose one or two collections: It’s best to work with a single collection, such as Chroma, Chroma 2, Gamma, etc. This will allow you to more accurately calculate your chances of successfully crafting a Karambit knife. Also, in this case, you will know which knives you can get if you don’t end up with a Karambit. There are collections where the alternative knives are also quite attractive and valuable.
2. Calculate the average float: When crafting a Karambit knife in CS2, the system takes the average float value of all 5 Covert skins. Therefore, if you want to get a knife with minimal scratches and abrasions, you should use skins with the lowest float value possible.
3. Buy 5 Covert items: Once you’ve determined the float you want and the Karambit from which collection you prefer, start purchasing the skins you need. Keep in mind that the cheapest CS2 Covert skins usually have poor float. Therefore, you may have to spend a little money to get a better-looking knife.
4. Complete the Karambit Knife Trade Up contract: Once you’ve collected the Covert items, open the contract, add 5 skins, and confirm the trade. Unfortunately, the chances of crafting a Karambit aren’t 100%, but we hope you’re lucky.

Conclusion – Mastering the Karambit Craft in 2026

We hope you now know the answer to the question of how to craft a Karambit knife in CS2. Yes, it’s possible, but the chances are far from 100%. According to our calculations, the chance of getting one of all the karambits in the collection is 20%. If you want to craft a specific skin, the chances decrease by another 11-13 times.

Therefore, if you’re considering Karambit knife crafting as a way to obtain a specific skin, it’s cheaper to buy it. Crafting isn’t cheap these days, as Covert items are expensive. The costs don’t always outweigh the potential benefits, and you should take this into account.

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Author Temujin Batbayar

Analyst from Ulaanbaatar specializing in CS2. Has competed in MESA tournaments, worked with Esports TV during the ESL Pro League, and reviewed both the PGL Major Antwerp 2022 and IEM Katowice 2024. Author of his own player evaluation metrics and known for accurate predictions. Has interviewed s1mple and ZywOo. In esports since the days of CS 1.3.

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